The Determinants of Urban Security Policies
The research project titled The Determinants of Urban Security Policies and Their Impact on Democratic Institutions investigates the factors underlying the emergence, since the 1990s, of the “urban security issue” in Italy and the related public policies.
The project aimed to determine which of the two models commonly identified in the scholarly literature as explaining the relationship between the public and punitive crime-control policies—namely, the bottom-up and top-down models—better fits the Italian case. The first (bottom-up) model holds that a public alarmed by a real increase in crime pushes policymakers toward more punitive crime-control strategies. The second (top-down) model maintains that political elites shape and steer public opinion, often with the support of the media.
By drawing on a substantial body of data and triangulating multiple sources, the project sought to empirically reconstruct the determinants of punitive policy interventions over the past thirty years. The ultimate aim was to encourage critical reflection on whether the perceived demand for greater security and increased criminalization has a solid empirical foundation.
The two-year study was developed within the framework of the Projects of Significant National Interest (PRIN) and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). Funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research through the European Union’s Next Generation EU programme, the project involves academic collaboration between two research units: the first, at the University of Milan, coordinated by Roberto Cornelli as Principal Investigator, Professor of Criminology in the “Cesare Beccaria” Department of Legal Sciences and Director of CRIMePO - Criminology and Public Policy Research Centre; the second, at the Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna, coordinated by Rossella Selmini, Professor of Criminology in the Department of Legal Sciences.
Preliminary research findings were presented at several national and international conferences (including the 25th Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, Athens, 3–6 September 2025, and the 38th Congress of the Italian Society of Criminology, Trento, 16–18 October 2025) and, with specific reference to the analysis of criminal and security legislation, were published in The Punitive Turn in Italian Criminal Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Criminal and Security Legislation over the Last Thirty Years.
The final conference presenting the research activities carried out over the two-year project was held in Milan on 20 January 2026 at the University of Milan (“Urban Security: Social Demand or Political Strategy?”).
The final research report (February 2026) is available in the attachment.
